USD Index Outlook: DXY Recovery May Fizzle Out Ahead of US Jobs Data
The USD Index Outlook: DXY Recovery May Fizzle Out Ahead of US Jobs Data Release. In the FX markets, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the recent US Labor Department data. The data may come on Friday, or after the European elections; and the markets are expecting more than just a one percentage point drop in jobless claims for August, according to many analysts.
In fact, some analysts believe that the Federal Reserve will hike rates in two weeks, as early as next week. On the other hand, others are worried that a rate hike may be delayed, especially if the Federal Reserve is unable to garner support from Congress. For now, the markets seem to be focused on the employment numbers. With these numbers in hand, the analysts are speculating as to what impact the new data release will have on the USD Index.
According to the Economic News Release, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release September’s official unemployment figures at 10AM on Thursday. After the release comes the USD Index Outlook: DXY. As a result of the expected release, we will know the extent of the US jobless claims. The Federal Reserve has also indicated that it is closely watching the data to see if it is consistent with its expectations and not too far away. The central bank will also be watching the unemployment statistics to see if it can get a handle on the increase in consumer spending and fuel inflation.
Even with the latest jobless claims, the U.S. economy still appears to be in a state of disarray. With so many people out of work, inflation is running high, and job seekers are becoming more cautious about taking their time in finding a job. This means that the Fed may have to wait another month or two before announcing any major rate hikes.
Many analysts have predicted that the jobless claims number will show a slight increase this month, but they expect the unemployment rate to rise a bit. However, according to those experts, this is probably due to a combination of bad timing and inaccurate information; and, there is no reason for concern.
According to the Economic News Release, a number of economists expect that the jobless claims number will hold steady at around 360,000, but an increase of up to 300k is expected after the release of the report is released. In fact, a number of observers predict that the unemployment rate could hold steady, even with the news of a higher number of jobless claims. Many analysts have said that the jobless claims will increase in October, when the Federal Reserve meets. Some believe that the number of claims will be so low this time that the unemployment rate will be unchanged and the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates until the fall.
Another reason why some analysts think the unemployment rate could hold steady is because of the uncertainty associated with the release of the unemployment claims. The timing of the release could determine whether or not the Federal Reserve waits until the last moment, before announcing a hike in interest rates. This means that there will be a lot of time for the U.S. economy to recover its financial standing, and for unemployment to begin to return to normal levels.
On the other hand, another reason that the unemployment figures may hold steady is because the unemployment claims may be lower than expected because the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is expected to increase in October. If the unemployment benefits application number increases, then the unemployment rate will likely go up as well, meaning that the jobless claims number may still be too low for the Federal Reserve to boost interest rates.